Por Carlos Germano
(analista político)
Estamos transitando las últimas semanas para el cierre de listas de cara a los comicios de mitad de término. Son unas elecciones muy particulares ya que los argentinos votaremos en medio de una pandemia en donde la luz al final del túnel aún no se vislumbra. A la incertidumbre misma de la pandemia, debemos agregarle la improvisación como modelo de gestión gubernamental, con un humor social sumamente pesimista.
De las ocho provincias que eligen Senadores Nacionales, en cinco de ellas la situación del oficialismo nacional es sumamente compleja y puede perder algunas bancas. Parece sumamente difícil retener el Senador por Córdoba y lo mismo ocurre en Santa Fe y Corrientes. Merece una mención aparte lo que puede ocurrir en Chubut en donde los tres senadores representantes de esa provincia patagónica votan como el Frente de Todos por lo que pueden perderse dos bancas. Por otro lado, hay que seguir de cerca lo que ocurre en Tucumán, en donde un conflicto interno entre el Gobernador y el Vice genera enormes incertidumbres políticas.
La provincia de Buenos Aires es la que marca el pulso electoral ya que ambas coaliciones apuestan fuerte a ese territorio de cara a los dos últimos años del gobierno de Fernández y ya pensando en las posibles candidaturas de 2023. En la oposición, las internas abiertas tendrán un rol central ya que tanto el radicalismo, con la confirmación de Facundo Manes como candidato, como un sector del PRO, con la apuesta por Diego Santilli, van diseñando el panorama electoral.
Aún queda dilucidar el rol que puede cumplir el intendente de Vicente López, Jorge Macri, para finalmente saber si el PRO irá unido o con fisuras internas. El Frente de Todos, por su parte, está en el proceso sangriento del cierre de listas pero la unidad no está en dudas y esta será la punta de lanza de la estrategia oficial.
El interior de la provincia de Buenos Aires sigue luciendo meramente opositor. La primera sección electoral (Norte-Oeste del conurbano) muestra paridad y en el conurbano sur (tercera sección) se observa una enorme ventaja del oficialismo. Es aquí en donde el kirchnerismo se siente cómodo y donde mejor posicionado en votos e imagen está. En esta estrategia, es central el rol que posee el intendente de La Matanza, Fernando Espinoza. Desde 1983 a la fecha, el peronismo no perdió ninguna elección ejecutiva en el distrito y solo sufrió en 1999 con la aparición de Lidia Satragno, más conocida como Pinky, quien estuvo a pocos votos de dar una sorpresa.
La única derrota ocurrió en las elecciones legislativas de 1985, en medio de un “alfonsinazo” ocurrido en todo el país que trajo, a modo de ejemplo, la renuncia de Leopoldo Bravo, entonces gobernador de la provincia de San Juan. La oposición debe pelear este distrito, aun sabiendo que tiene grandes chances de perder. Pero la clave está en la diferencia.
En 2013, Sergio Massa logró ganar la provincia de Buenos Aires venciendo al candidato oficial, Martín Insaurralde. En esos comicios, Massa obtuvo 38% en La Matanza. En 2017 Cristina Kirchner fue derrotada en la provincia y si miramos nuevamente el distrito, entre Cambiemos con Esteban Bullrich, 1 País con Sergio Massa y el Justicialismo con Florencio Randazzo, obtuvieron juntos el 44%. En 2015, cuando María Eugenia Vidal venció a Aníbal Fernández, la oposición sacó el 40% en La Matanza. En definitiva, la oposición no puede ganar si no aspira a alcanzar un piso de 35% de los votos del distrito.
En este marco de incertidumbre, con una apatía creciente y graves problemas económicos, quien mejor represente a un cúmulo de votantes indignados es quien estará mejor posicionado para triunfar, por fuera de lo que puedan obtener por medio del convencimiento de los votantes más ideologizados y definidos. Las necesidades y preocupaciones son muchas.
Las propuestas concretas, muy pocas. Es bueno recordar que casi el 70% de los trabajadores argentinos ganan menos de 40.000 pesos. A esta altura del 2021, resulta evidente que las mismas recetas nos siguen llevando hacia un país atrasado y empobrecido. Quien mejor pueda dilucidar y canalizar este humor social sumamente negativo es quien estará mejor posicionado para enfrentar el complejo desafío de las elecciones que se vienen.
Fuente: dataclave.com.ar
Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Many thanks, However I am experiencing problems with your RSS.
I don’t know the reason why I can’t subscribe to it. Is there anybody else having the same RSS issues?
Anybody who knows the solution can you kindly respond?
Thanx!!
Very good blog you have here but I was wanting to know if you knew of any forums that cover the same topics
discussed here? I’d really like to be a part of community where I can get responses from
other knowledgeable people that share the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me
know. Cheers!
Quality content is the important to interest the people to
visit the website, that’s what this website is providing.
Feel free to visit my web page :: Keto Complete Reviews
I know this site presents quality dependent articles and extra
data, is there any other website which offers these kinds of information in quality?
Feel free to surf to my blog – IQ SuperCharged Review
What’s Going down i’m new to this, I stumbled upon this I have found It absolutely useful
and it has aided me out loads. I am hoping to contribute
& help different users like its helped me. Good job.
Have a look at my web-site; Amellia Skin Care; https://psicura.it/,
It’s awesome to pay a quick visit this website and
reading the views of all mates about this article, while I am also zealous of getting know-how.
my blog post: Spore Mens Vitality Mix Side Effects
Hello Dear, are you truly visiting this website regularly, if so then you will without
doubt obtain fastidious know-how.
my site :: http://shihan.com.ru
I would like to take the ability of saying thanks to you for your professional advice I have
enjoyed going to your site. We’re looking forward to the commencement of
my university research and the complete planning would never have been complete without dropping by your website.
If I may be of any assistance to others, I’d personally be pleased to help by way of what I have learned from here.
Feel free to visit my website – Christi
I visited various web sites but the audio quality for audio
songs existing at this site is genuinely wonderful.
Hi! Do you know if they make any plugins to protect against hackers?
I’m kinda paranoid about losing everything I’ve worked hard on. Any tips?
An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a coworker
who had been conducting a little research on this.
And he in fact ordered me breakfast due to the fact
that I discovered it for him… lol. So let me reword this….
Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending the
time to discuss this subject here on your web site.
Also visit my homepage: WifiLift Reviews
This paragraph will help the internet viewers for setting up new website or even a weblog from
start to end.
Feel free to surf to my web site; Evo Naturals Hemp Gummy Bears Review
Excellent blog here! Also your website loads up fast!
What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your
host? I wish my site loaded up as quickly as yours lol
Greetings from Florida! I’m bored to death at work so I decided to check out your blog on my iphone during lunch break.
I enjoy the information you present here and can’t wait
to take a look when I get home. I’m amazed at how fast your blog loaded on my mobile ..
I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyhow, amazing site!
my site Syner Sooth CBD
Good blog! I really love how it is simple on my eyes and the data are well written. I’m wondering how I could be notified whenever a new post has been made.
I’ve subscribed to your RSS which must do the trick!
Have a great day!
Look into my web page; bbs.yunweishidai.com
Everything is very open with a clear explanation of the issues.
It was really informative. Your website is very useful.
Many thanks for sharing!
Also visit my page :: Keto Lean X Reviews
Hey there! I’m at work browsing your blog from my new
iphone 3gs! Just wanted to say I love reading through your blog and
look forward to all your posts! Carry on the fantastic work!
Here is my web blog :: Xtreme Shred Keto Reviews
I have read so many posts about the blogger
lovers but this article is in fact a good post, keep it
up.
F*ckin’ remarkable things here. I am very glad to peer your article.
Thank you a lot and i am looking forward to touch you. Will you
kindly drop me a mail?
my web page; Hempizor CBD Oil
You should take part in a contest for one of the
best sites on the web. I am going to recommend this
site!
Here is my web blog; Glacier Air Cooler
Very great post. I simply stumbled upon your blog and wished to say that I have truly enjoyed browsing your blog posts.
After all I will be subscribing to your rss feed and I hope you
write once more soon!
As soon as I found this website I went on reddit
to share some of the love with them.
my web blog – Oracle Leaf Gold CBD
A person necessarily help to make significantly articles I’d state.
That is the first time I frequented your web page and up to now?
I amazed with the research you made to create this particular post extraordinary.
Wonderful activity!
Feel free to visit my blog post … DFine8
Please let me know if you’re looking for a article writer for your weblog.
You have some really great posts and I think
I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of
the load off, I’d absolutely love to write some material for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine.
Please shoot me an email if interested. Many thanks!
Here is my site – Bio Wellness CBD Gummies Cost
I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website
yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz respond as I’m looking to construct my own blog and would like to know where u got this from.
kudos
As soon as I found this internet site I went on reddit
to share some of the love with them.
Also visit my web page; Cornell
It’s perfect time to make some plans for the longer term and it’s time to be happy.
I have read this submit and if I may just I wish to suggest
you few fascinating things or suggestions. Maybe you could write subsequent articles relating to this article.
I want to learn more things about it!
Also visit my website; Keto LeanX Pills
Hi my family member! I wish to say that this post is amazing, nice written and come with almost all vital
infos. I’d like to see more posts like this .
I comment whenever I especially enjoy a post on a website
or I have something to add to the discussion. Usually it’s triggered by the
fire communicated in the article I read. And on this article Elecciones y pandemia: los argentinos votaremos sin ver la luz al final del túnel | mdphoy.com.
I was excited enough to drop a thought 🙂 I
do have a couple of questions for you if it’s okay. Could it be just me or do some
of the comments appear like coming from brain dead folks?
😛 And, if you are writing at other places, I would like
to follow you. Could you list every one of all your social sites like your linkedin profile, Facebook page or
twitter feed?
my homepage; https://bbs.yunweishidai.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1801808
I loved as much as you will receive carried out right here.
The sketch is tasteful, your authored material stylish.
nonetheless, you command get bought an impatience over that you wish be delivering the following.
unwell unquestionably come further formerly again since exactly the same
nearly a lot often inside case you shield this hike.
my homepage librarius.main.jp
I enjoy you because of your own effort on this web site.
Debby delights in setting aside time for research and it’s really easy to
see why. We notice all concerning the compelling medium you produce sensible guidelines
through your web site and foster response from visitors
on that content then our favorite simple princess is always discovering a lot.
Take pleasure in the rest of the new year. You’re the one conducting a remarkable job.[X-N-E-W-L-I-N-S-P-I-N-X]I’m
extremely impressed along with your writing talents and also with the
structure to your weblog. Is that this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself?
Either way keep up the excellent high quality writing, it is uncommon to
see a great weblog like this one these days.
Here is my web page :: Amellia Cream Reviews (vip5.moisait2021.ru)
Hi there friends, its great post about educationand entirely explained, keep it up
all the time.
Here is my website D-Fine8 Reviews
Now I am ready to do my breakfast, after having my breakfast coming again to read other news.
Look at my web site – Pure Remedy CBD Oil
great issues altogether, you simply won a new reader.
What could you recommend about your submit that you just made some days ago?
Any sure?
Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Thanks, However
I am going through troubles with your RSS. I don’t know
the reason why I am unable to join it. Is there anybody else having identical
RSS problems? Anyone who knows the answer will you kindly
respond? Thanx!!
It’s awesome to go to see this web site and reading the views of all friends
about this article, while I am also zealous of getting experience.
Howdy! Quick question that’s totally off topic.
Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly?
My web site looks weird when browsing from my
iphone4. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to correct this
issue. If you have any suggestions, please share. Thanks!